Sell Signal on March 27th – 13 days ago (trend down)
Using this strategy on the S&P 500 Index over the last 30 years you do slightly better than the index but with less risk and less drawdown. IE if you just used a buy and hold strategy you would have ½ of your money at some point compared to about 30%.
If you started with 100k 30 years ago you would have made 770k. This Monte Carlo simulation shows that you would end up with about 900k and after 1000 simulations you would have a 5% chance of ending up with 350k and a 5% chance of ending up with 1.4 million.
The worst loss you could expect would be about 24% (only in the last few weeks) excluding that it would have been about 18%.
Here’s the equity curve for this strategy (if starting with 110k in 1990). The flat spots indicate points where the strategy has taken you out of the market.
All this to say. This system is saying to be out of the market or you should be using a short strategy. It’s not a great system (far from it) but I would be careful about going long right now.